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美聯(lián)儲鴿派之王出現(xiàn)了 他竟希望在美國實行負利率

鳳凰iMarkets訊 據(jù)彭博社報道，美聯(lián)儲在萬眾矚目中決定按兵不動，維持2008年以來的近零利率。然而今年來聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)中無人持異議的局面被打破，里士滿聯(lián)儲銀行行長Jeffrey M. Lacker在表決中投票反對維持利率不變，主張將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間上調(diào)25個基點。

雖然同樣是維持利率不變，然而通過對比7月29日的FOMC會議聲明，除有決策者持異議外，9月17日的聲明在表述中還出現(xiàn)了以下幾點顯著變化：

國際形勢

9月17日聲明中新增了“最近全球經(jīng)濟和金融動態(tài)可能會對經(jīng)濟活動略有抑制，而且很可能會對近期通脹構成進一步下行壓力”的表述

企業(yè)固定投資

9月17日稱“一直溫和增長”

7月29日的描述為“依然疲軟”

基于市場的通脹補償指標

9月17日的聲明稱這一指標“下跌”

7月29日則描述為“依然低企”

能源價格

9月17日對能源價格的下跌剔除了“先前”的時間表述

7月29日則有“先前”的強調(diào)

值得注意的是，9月和7月兩份聲明共同點更多：

目前0-0.25%的聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間依然合適

通脹繼續(xù)低于委員會的長期目標

住宅領域進一步好轉

勞動力市場繼續(xù)好轉，就業(yè)增長穩(wěn)固且失業(yè)率下降

在適度的政策寬松之下，經(jīng)濟活動將以溫和步伐擴張，其中勞動力市場指標會繼續(xù)向委員會認為與其雙重職責相一致的水平發(fā)展

勞動力資源利用不足的情況自年初以來消減

經(jīng)濟活動以及勞動力市場展望方面的風險接近平衡

在看到勞動力市場有了某種程度進一步好轉且對通脹在中期將升向其2%目標方面抱有合理信心時，上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間將是合適之舉

將所持機構債券與機構抵押貸款支持證券的到期本金再投資到機構抵押貸款支持證券，并在標售時將到期國債展期

即使在就業(yè)和通脹接近與其法定職責相一致水平的情況下，經(jīng)濟狀況在一段時間內(nèi)可能有理由讓委員會將聯(lián)邦基金目標利率維持在其認為長期正常的水平之下

眾說紛紜：

彭博經(jīng)濟學家：美聯(lián)儲因通脹和全球經(jīng)濟憂慮而按兵不動

聲明保留了對國際經(jīng)濟形勢發(fā)展壓制美國前景的更深憂慮，并且注意到通脹率在最終向2%的聯(lián)儲目標回升前可能先有所回落，因暫時性因素（能源和進口價格）再度浮現(xiàn)

彭博策略師：FOMC政策聲明呈現(xiàn)鴿派基調(diào)

加入有關全球形勢的表述暗示美聯(lián)儲最早在2016年前都不會加息

CIBC：FOMC聲明暗示“漸進緊縮周期已經(jīng)接近”

利率預測依然顯示FOMC多數(shù)成員認為今年加息“適宜”，盡管人數(shù)比上次少

高盛：美聯(lián)儲預測顯示轉向今年加息一次

FOMC政策聲明暗示對金融市場和國際形勢的擔憂加劇

德意志銀行：FOMC點陣圖符合“鷹派基調(diào)但維持利率不變”的普遍預期

FOMC點陣圖預期與今年加息“大門敞開”的觀點相符

東方匯理：美聯(lián)儲鴿派論調(diào)有助于提升雷亞爾風險偏好

鴿派結果應該會有助于提升目前的風險偏好

巴克萊：FOMC將暗示12月份加息該行維持明年3月加息的觀點

FOMC政策聲明比預期略顯鴿派，但相信大多數(shù)決策人士預計今年加息

注：FOMC利率決策表決中上一次出現(xiàn)異議還是在2014年12月17日結束的會議上，當時Richard W. Fisher、Narayana Kocherlakota和Charles I. Plosser投票反對維持利率不變

以下是美聯(lián)儲聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)周三在華盛頓發(fā)布的政策聲明全文：

自聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會7月份會議以來收到的信息顯示，經(jīng)濟活動在以溫和步伐擴張。居民開支和商業(yè)固定投資一直在溫和增長，住宅領域進一步好轉；然而，凈出口一直疲軟。勞動力市場繼續(xù)好轉，就業(yè)增長穩(wěn)固且失業(yè)率下降。整體而言，勞動力市場指標顯示勞動力資源利用不足的情況自年初以來消減。通脹繼續(xù)低于委員會的長期目標，在部分程度上反映了能源價格以及非能源進口產(chǎn)品價格的下跌?；谑袌龅?a href="http://www.dali56.com/topic/news/tongzhang/index.shtml" target="_blank">通脹補償指標下跌； 基于調(diào)查的長期通脹預期指標保持穩(wěn)定。

為履行其法定職責，委員會尋求促進充分就業(yè)并保持物價穩(wěn)定。最近全球經(jīng)濟和金融動態(tài)可能會對經(jīng)濟活動略有抑制，而且很可能會對近期通脹構成進一步下行壓力。盡管如此，委員會預計，在適度的政策寬松之下，經(jīng)濟活動將以溫和步伐擴張，其中勞動力市場指標會繼續(xù)向委員會認為與其雙重職責相一致的水平發(fā)展。委員會繼續(xù)認為，經(jīng)濟活動以及勞動力市場展望方面的風險接近平衡，但正在監(jiān)測海外動態(tài)。雖然預計通脹近期內(nèi)將維持在最近的低水平附近，但委員會預計，隨著勞動力市場進一步好轉以及能源與進口產(chǎn)品價格下跌的臨時影響消退，通脹在中期內(nèi)會逐步升向2%。委員會將繼續(xù)密切監(jiān)測通脹動態(tài)。

為支持形勢持續(xù)向充分就業(yè)以及物價穩(wěn)定的目標發(fā)展，委員會周三確認以下看法：目前0-0.25%的聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間依然合適。在確定要將這一目標區(qū)間維持多長時間方面，委員會將評估形勢朝其充分就業(yè)以及2%通脹目標發(fā)展的情況——包括已實現(xiàn)情況和預期情況。這方面的評估將考慮廣泛的一系列信息，包括衡量勞動力市場狀況的指標、通脹壓力與通脹預期指標以及金融和國際動態(tài)方面的數(shù)據(jù)。委員會認為，在看到勞動力市場有些進一步好轉且對通脹在中期將升向其2%目標方面抱有合理信心時，上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間將是合適之舉。

委員會維持這一現(xiàn)有政策：將所持機構債券與機構抵押貸款支持證券的到期本金再投資到機構抵押貸款支持證券，并在標售時將到期國債展期。這一政策通過將委員會所持長期證券維持在可觀水平，應該會有助于保持寬松的金融狀況。

在決定要開始取消寬松政策時，委員會將采取平衡而且與其充分就業(yè)以及2%的通脹率這些長期目標相一致的方式。委員會目前預計，即使在就業(yè)和通脹接近與其法定職責相一致水平的情況下，經(jīng)濟狀況在一段時間內(nèi)可能有理由讓委員會將聯(lián)邦基金目標利率維持在其認為長期正常的水平之下。

投票支持聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會本次貨幣政策行動的成員為：主席珍妮特· 耶倫、副主席威廉姆·杜德利、Lael Brainard、Charles L.

Evans、Stanley Fischer、Dennis P. Lockhart、Jerome H.

Powell、Daniel K. Tarullo以及John C. Williams。Jeffrey M. Lacker 投票反對此次行動，他支持在本次會議上將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標區(qū)間上調(diào)25個基點。

原文

Release Date: September 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.